A comparison of the expected and statistical probability distribution of system failures
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URI (для ссылок/цитирований):
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1757-899X/537/6/062027https://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/128879
Автор:
Dulesov, A. S.
Karandeev, D. J.
Bazhenov, R. I.
Krasnova, T. G.
Dulesova, N V
Коллективный автор:
Хакасский технический институт — филиал СФУ
Кафедра электроэнергетики
Дата:
2019Журнал:
IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering 537 (2019) 052003IOP PublishingКвартиль журнала в Scopus:
без квартиляКвартиль журнала в Web of Science:
без квартиляБиблиографическое описание:
Dulesov, A. S. A comparison of the expected and statistical probability distribution of system failures [Текст] / A. S. Dulesov, D. J. Karandeev, R. I. Bazhenov, T. G. Krasnova, N V Dulesova // IOP Conference Series: Materials Science and Engineering 537 (2019) 052003IOP Publishing. — 2019. — Т. 537 (№ 6).Аннотация:
The possibility of applying the information theory in the problem of comparing the
expected and statistical probability distribution of failures of a technical system are considered.
The paper presents a brief analysis of the processes of additive and multiplicative growth of the
system indicators, among which the probability of failure-free operation and failure rate were
considered. These indicators were considered in order to analyze the reliability of the system.
The increase in reliability of the indicators is associated with the fixing of the failure rate of the
system elements and the construction of probability distributions. In order to compare the two
distributions, a method for measuring uncertainty is proposed, which includes Shannon’s
measure of uncertainty, cross-entropy and Kullback-Leibler divergence. Together, they make it
possible to determine the connection between the two different probability distributions of
failures, to calculate the distance between the distributions, to identify the degree of difference
between the real and desired state of the system during operation. An example of calculation
confirming the importance of the participation of the offered method for measuring uncertainty
in the problem of comparison of the expected and statistical probability distribution of system
failures is given.