How can the parameterization of a process-based model help us understand real tree-ring growth?

Abstract

Tree-growth response to changing climate varies depending on tree species, forest type, and geographical region. Process-based models can help us better understand and anticipate these outcomes. To characterize growth sensitivity to different climate parameters, we applied the VS-Oscilloscope analytical package, as a precise visual parameterization tool of the Vaganov–Shashkin model, to two contrasting habitats: one with tree-ring growth limitation by soil moisture (in the southern part of central Siberia) and the another with temperature limitation (in the middle part of central Siberia). We speculate that specific parameter values of the Vaganov–Shashkin model and their variability under local conditions and species are the key to understand different physiological processes in conifers. According to the simulation results for the temperature-limited site, wider rings of Picea obovata can result from a longer growing season. However, for the soil moisture-limited site, the final sizes of the tree rings of Pinus sylvestris were not affected by the length of the growing season but were primarily defined by the intra-seasonal variations in soil moisture, even under cold conditions. For the two sites, we obtained a 20-day difference between the two phenological dates, in which the early date could be associated with cambial initiation and the late date with the appearance of the first enlarging cell. In the case of central Siberia, the time period was half that of the southern Siberia. Such differences could be explained by both geography and species-specific responses to phenology. To test this hypothesis, additional tree-ring and climatic data for contrasted habitats would be needed.