Use of Panel Data for Assessing Socio-Economic Situation in the Northern Regions of Krasnoyarsk Krai

Abstract

The development of resource regions in Siberia including the Northern Areas of Krasnoyarsk Krai falls within the scope of priority economic and geopolitical interests of this country. The strategic development of the resource regions in Northern Arctic Territories squares off against a set of particularly urgent environmental, economic and social problems such as a declining quality of life, labor shortages, increasing transformation rate of the resource-based potential. In this regard, to make the resource regions’ development management even more efficient it is necessary to implement up-top scientific methods and mechanisms on decision-making, forecasting and monitoring of the regional economy. The research novelty is related to formulation of econometric techniques and spatial economics model system relying on panel (longitudinal) studies for assessing spatial development of the regional economy in general and its elements in particular. Firstly, this approach measures how not merely system changes, but also certain management decisions impact the rate of regional development, and secondly – allows for statistically valid matching among different Northern Areas in Russia and other countries. An integrated initial sampling includes urban areas and 56 municipal districts of Krasnoyarsk Krai in 2007 – 2015. This research has defined economic, social and environmental indicators for the Arctic Zone in Krasnoyarsk Krai and in the Evenk District included into an absolutely discomfort and extremely discomfort zones on bioclimatic indicators. The climatic approach based on the July isotherm allows classifying this territory as the Arctic one. The average monthly temperatures in July vary from +13 °С to +15 °С, in January – from -34 to -38 °С that is adequate to the Arctic Zones. The frost lasts there for 240 – 275 days. The panel studies highlight the following general tendencies: a strongly-pronounced asymmetry in the development of the Arctic Zone and similar territories of Krasnoyarsk Krai; trends in the basic economic, social and ecologic indicators; economic decline in the resource-based regions on the back of normalized data for all the areas of Krasnoyarsk Krai; this decline does not improve ecologic state of these territories; lack of positive dynamics in the social indicators under increased investments into the fixed capital per capita.