A METHOD FOR CONSTRUCTING SCENARIOS OF TECHNOLOGICAL DEVELOPMENT OF A REGIONAL ECONOMY

Abstract

This paper considers the implications of a new method for managing the development of a region. This method employs the «smart specialization» concept and results in the formation new booming sectors in the economy of region. The formation of these sectors is based on integration of «breakthrough» and intellectual technologies into the processes of production and management, both in traditional regional sectors of specialization and new sectors. We consider a transition to multi-sectoral model to be a primary objective of regional development. This model includes the basic sectors of regional specialization (resource, infrastructure, and manufacturing sectors) as well as new booming sectors such as «knowledge economy» and «high tech». We explore possible ways of constructing strategies and scenarios of region technological development. We believe it is possible by combining different sources of new knowledge (borrowing and adaptation of technologies, developing parent technologies) and sectors of regional economy (the basic sectors of regional specialization, booming sectors). In order to determine the types of region economic development we propose using the matrix «Economic sectors – Sources of new knowledge and technologies». Using the matrix we can distinguish the types of scenarios according the extent of technological leadership («leadership in a niche», «local technological competitiveness», «international technological competitiveness»). The feasibility of scenarios of technological development depends on the structure and potential of innovative technological system of a region. This system will allow evaluating the possibility of creating their own parent technologies and form innovative professional competencies in the region or reasonability of technology and professional skills import. Krasnoyarsk Krai is used as an example of a resource region to evaluate the possibility of creating new economic sectors considering the features and limitations caused by its resource specialization.