The Intensity of Wildfires in Fire Emissions Estimates

Abstract

A method for estimating direct wildfire emissions that considers fire intensity based on infrared radiation data from the Terra/MODIS satellite is proposed. In Siberia, we experimentally established that low intensity fires cover 47 ± 13% of the total area; that with moderate intensity, 42 ± 10%; and that with high-intensity, 10 ± 6%. The average value of wildfire emissions in Siberia is estimated at 83 ± 21 Тg С/yr (2002–2016), which is considerably lower than the values determined by standard procedure (112 ± 25 Тg С/yr). Based on the trend of long-term dynamics of fire emissions in Siberia, a probable level of emissions in 2100 is calculated when implementing climate scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.0, and RCP8.5 (220, 700, and 2300 Тg С/yr, respectively).