Process-based modeling of tree-ring formation and its relationships with climate on the Tibetan Plateau

Abstract

Response of climate warming on tree-ring formation has attracted much attention during recent years. However, most studies are based on statistical analysis, lacking understanding of tree-physiological processes, especially in the mountainous regions of the Tibetan Plateau (TP). Herein, we firstly use an updated new version of the tree-ring process-based Vaganov-Shashkin model (VS-oscilloscope) to simulate tree-ring formation and its relationships with climate factors during the past six decades. Our analyses covered 341 sampled trees growing within elevations ranging from 2750 to 4575 m a.s.l. at five sampling sites across the TP. Simulated tree-ring width series are significantly (p < 0.01) correlated with actual tree-ring width chronologies during their common interval periods. Starting dates of tree-ring formation are determined by temperature at all five sampling sites. After the initiation of tree stem cambial activity, soil moisture content has a significant effect on tree radial growth. Ending dates of cambial activity are driven by temperature over the whole study region. Simulated results indicate differences between wide and narrow tree-rings are mostly induced by soil moisture content, especially during the first half of the growing season, when effects from temperature variations are minor. Interestingly, we detected significantly (p < 0.001) increased relative growth rates due to higher soil moisture content after the year 1985 at the five sampling sites. However, the variability of mean relative growth rates due to temperature is negligible before and after that. Based on the successful application of VS-oscilloscope modeling on the high-elevation tree stands on the TP, our study provides a new perspective on tree radial growth process and their varying relationships to climate factors during the past six decades.