Modeling of added value of high-tech industries based on aluminium

Abstract

The article proposes a model for assessing the efficiency of the cluster to predict the potential value and structure of value added for promising products and technological chains of their production. The ratio of added value as a result of the cluster operation to the volume of revenue from sales was chosen as the resulting indicator. The choice is due to the possibility of using this ratio as a multiplier of value added. Independent groups of factors - internal (depreciation; payroll; profit) and external market factors determining the upper limit of value added formation (the scale of the national market and the market share controlled by the cluster). Presents major phases in the simulation: predict the relative resultant figure to 2020 based on extrapolating actual values for 2010-2016 for the structure of value added elements (amortization, payroll; profit) and stages of the technological chain of the cluster - production of alumina, production of aluminum and alloys, production of intermediate products, production of final products; assessment of the potential value and structure of value added from the production of promising products in 2020 A mechanism for assessing changes in the value added as a result of management of the value of internal factors at each stage of the technological chain is developed, which allows to optimize management decisions and create alternative scenarios for increasing the added value in the technological chain of the cluster. Testing of the proposed model to estimate the value and structure of value added by types of promising products in the elements of the cluster "Technological valley" in accordance with production scenarios is presented