Show simple item record

He, M.
Yang, B.
Shishov, V.
Rossi, S.
Bräuning, A.
Ljungqvist, F. C.
Grießinger, J.
2019-07-01T07:26:49Z
2019-07-01T07:26:49Z
2017-11
He, M. Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations [Текст] / M. He, B. Yang, V. Shishov, S. Rossi, A. Bräuning, F. C. Ljungqvist, J. Grießinger // International Journal of Biometeorology. — 2017. — Т. 62 (№ 4). — С. 631-641
00207128
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00484-017-1472-4
http://elib.sfu-kras.ru/handle/2311/110838
The response of the growing season to the ongoing global warming has gained considerable attention. In particular, how and to which extent the growing season will change during this century is essential information for the Tibetan Plateau, where the observed warming trend has exceeded the globalmean. In this study, the 1960–2014 mean length of the tree-ring growing season (LOS) on the Tibetan Plateau was derived from results of the Vaganov-Shashkin oscilloscope tree growth model, based on 20 composite study sites and more than 3000 trees. Bootstrap and partial correlations were used to evaluate the most significant climate factors determining the LOS in the study region. Based on this relationship, we predicted the future variability of the LOS under three emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, representing different concentrations of greenhouse gasses) derived from 17 Earth system models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The averaged LOS on the Tibetan Plateau is 103 days during the period 1960–2014, and April–September minimum temperature is the strongest factor controlling the LOS.We detected a general increase in the LOS over the twenty-first century under all the three selected scenarios. By the middle of this century, LOS will extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 2.6 and 6.0, and by more than 1 month (37 days) under the RCP 8.5, relative to the baseline period 1960–2014. From the middle to the end of the twenty-first century, LOS will further extend by about 3 to 4 weeks under the RCPs 6.0 and 8.5, respectively. Under the RCP 2.6 scenario, however, the extension reaches a plateau at around 2050 and about 2 weeks LOS extension. In total, we found an average rate of 2.1, 3.6, and 5.0 days decade−1 for the LOS extension from 2015 to 2100 under the RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5, respectively. However, such estimated LOS extensions may be offset by other ecological factors that were not included into the growth model. The estimated lengthening of the growing season could substantially affect carbon sequestration and forest productivity on the Tibetan Plateau.
Phenology
Temperature sensitivity
Representative Concentration Pathways
Climate predictions
Projections for the changes in growing season length of tree-ring formation on the Tibetan Plateau based on CMIP5 model simulations
Journal Article
Journal Article Preprint
631-641
34.03.23
2019-07-01T07:26:49Z
10.1007/s00484-017-1472-4
Торгово-экономический институт
Кафедра математических методов и информационных технологий
International Journal of Biometeorology
Q1
Q2


Files in this item

Thumbnail

This item appears in the following Collection(s)

Show simple item record